Raila allays fear of losing majority seats in parliament rendering him lame duck president
3 min readRaila allays fear of losing majority seats in parliament rendering him a lame duck president if he wins the August general elections.
There is growing anxiety within the Azimio coalition with insiders recognizing that due to a lack of support in parliament, Raila might find himself under the control of William Ruto.
They are concerned that there are too many candidates with ties to Azimio that are contesting for the same seat in some areas.
Kenya Kwanza which has fewer candidates may profit from vote splitting among Azimio candidates and gain the majority in the parliament at which point he (Ruto) will have the final say even with Raila in the State House.
Azimio, for instance, has 567 candidates vying for the 290 Member of Parliament seats compared to Kenya Kwanza’s 366.
But compared to Raila’s ODM which has 181, Ruto’s UDA party has more prospective MPs.
UDA has 261 increasing its chances of outnumbering Raila’s ODM party.
Azimio or ODM?
Meanwhile, Raila is also caught up in the Azimio coalition juggling to keep his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) afloat, yet still running the coalition.
Raila has to ensure that ODM garners majority seats on August 9, while at the same time appeasing coalition affiliate parties.
The Azimio presidential candidate is reportedly concerned that the stiff challenge posed to ODM in its traditional strongholds could deny it key seats in Parliament.
This would make him a lame duck president if he wins the polls.
He would then be exposed to possible impeachment, political blackmail, and manipulation.
There are rumors that some Azimio affiliates are encroaching on ODM’s strongholds in Nyanza, the West, the Coast, and the North Eastern.
If he wins the presidential election but loses the legislative election through his party, ODM, his aides warn that it may be difficult for him to advance his program in Parliament.
Without a majority of members in the National Assembly and Senate, MPs from both the Azimio parties and Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance may kidnap the former prime minister (UDA).
Raila has sent some close lieutenants to scour his political stronghold to make sure that ODM receives enough votes to stay alive.
He is aware that some of the political parties in Azimio backing his candidacy may bring more members to the bargaining table.
James Orengo of Siaya and Oburu Oginga of the East African Legislative Assembly urge Nyanza voters to support ODM candidates on August 9 because Raila might find himself in the same situation as US President Joe Biden, who has been unable to push his plan through the US Congress.
“Numbers matter in presidential elections, percentages matter, votes garnered in every county matter, because there are many thresholds that must be met. Everybody here is of the opinion and resolve that we must go out there and get people to vote,” Orengo said.
ODM deputy party leader and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya says Raila has issued express instructions to heighten campaigns for a six-piece voting pattern in their strongholds.
“It is a matter of grave concern. All ODM leaders have been told to do everything under their power to ensure that the party garners enough seats on August 9,” said Oparanya.
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