No Possibility of Runoff in August Presidential Elections, Pollster Tom Wolf Dismisses the Talk.
Pollster analyst Tom Wolf has said there’s no possibility of runoff in the August presidential election.
Wolf made the remarks during the release of opinion polls on Wednesday, May 18, that it does not make sense to deduce a possibility of a repeat presidential election.
“Because there are people who do not vote or haven’t made up their mind, please when you are reporting these results as many people do in the media that there must be a run-off because nobody hit 50%. That doesn’t make any sense,” said Wolf.
He explained that the arithmetic done by media houses and other pollsters to conclude that there would be a run-off did not add up.
“It is very unlikely that either one of those pairs won’t get above 50%. You have to subtract all those other people undecided, who did not vote, and others before you do the arithmetic. Absolutely no basis for saying there would be a run-off,” explained Wolf.
However, he noted that if Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka got closer to achieving 9% of the vote in the 2007 General Election, a run-off would be held.
According to Wolf, the large number of presidential candidates increases the chance of a run-off election.
“I would suggest that the closer to the 9% that former vice president Musyoka got in 2007 the greater will be the possibility of a run-off contest. Remember there is these other candidates together they might get 1 or 2% which would increase the necessity of a run-off,” added Wolf.
Meanwhile, in the opinion polls released by TIFA, Raila Odinga led William Ruto in popularity.
Raila Odinga had national support of 39% while Wiliam Ruto had 35% popularity.
Kalonzo came a distant third with only 2%.